Manufacturing PMI

Manufacturing PMI is an economic indicator which is derived from the monthly surveys to help in determining the market conditions.

Updated: November 10, 2024

Manufacturing PMI


Manufacturing PMI:

Manufacturing PMI is an economic indicator which is derived from the monthly surveys to help in determining the market conditions.

Some facts about Manufacturing PMI:

  • Manufacturing PMI helps analysts and economists to correctly anticipate changing economic trends in official data series such as gross domestic products (GDP), employment, industrial production and inflation as it is  an accurate and timely indicator of business conditions
  • The PMI surveys are ranked among the world's most market moving economic data releases as  PMI data are sometimes released months ahead of comparable official data.
  • A timely insight into changing business conditions in the goods-producing sector can be provided by manufacturing PMI.
  • The survey generically as well as specifically the headline indicator from the survey defines Manufacturing PMI
  • Changing economic trends in official data such as GDP can be anticipated by using PMI.
  • It is sometimes used as an alternative gauge of economic performance and business conditions to official data.
  • Delays in publication, poor availability or data quality issues can be avoided in PMI.
  • PMI is an economic indicator, which is derived after monthly surveys of different companies that shows trends in both the manufacturing and services sector.
  • Information regarding the current and future business conditions can be provided by PMI as the index helps in determining whether the market conditions is expanding, contracting or staying the same as seen by purchasing managers.
  • PMI is considered as one of the closely watched indicators of business activity that helps in predicting the economic health of a country.
  • Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI are  two types of PMI.
  • A combined index is also made by using both manufacturing PMI and services PMI.
  • PMI was started in 1948 for the first time by US-based Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
  • The index for Singapore is produced by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM), where as the index for 30 other countries is produced by IHS Markit.
  • The performance of manufacturing sector of India is measured by the IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index which is derived after a survey of 500 manufacturing companies.
  • PMI is a good indicator of the economic activity in any country as it gives an idea about the direction the economy is taking and helps economists in predicting the manufacturing activity in the country. 
  • PMI is usually released before other indexes such as GDP, industrial output.
  • The PMI index is used by the manufacturers and suppliers to decide on their production needs based on new orders in the coming months.
  • It also helps investors who are looking to invest in the stock markets as the economic health of the country can be determined with the help of PMI.

How is the manufacturing PMI derived?

  • Fact-based questions are typically sent to a large number of companies within the relevant sector to derive the PMI.
  • The questionnaire for manufacturing PMI is distributed to manufacturing companies.
  • The questions are factual and focus on five key variables: new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), supplier delivery times (15%), and stock of purchased items (10%).
  • These weights were initially determined by Theodore Torda of the US Department of Commerce to enhance the accuracy of the survey data in predicting GDP changes.
  • New orders are given the highest weight, as they tend to lead other indicators.
  • Surveys are conducted monthly and focus on factual data, not on opinions, intentions, or expectations.
  • A PMI score greater than 50 indicates business expansion, while a score below 50 indicates contraction.
  • The difference from the midpoint (50) and the previous month's data helps gauge the rate of expansion.
  • PMI serves as a survey-based indicator of business conditions, including measures of output, new orders, costs, selling prices, exports, employment, purchasing activity, supplier performance, order backlogs, and inventories of both inputs and finished goods.
  • Respondents report changes in each variable compared to the prior month, noting whether they have risen, fallen, or remained unchanged.
  • Along with objective questions, respondents are asked a subjective sentiment question regarding their outlook for output in the next year—whether it will be higher, the same, or lower.
  • IHS Markit initially compiled the PMI for manufacturing but expanded coverage to other sectors such as services, construction, and retail in the 1990s.

Who Releases Purchasing Managers Index data?

  • The majority of Purchasing Managers Index surveys are published by IHS Markit  which compiles the surveys in over 40 countries. 
  • These surveys are sometimes branded in sponsor's names.
  • But, the data are gathered and survey results are compiled by IHS Markit to ensure the same consistent survey standards are applied globally.
  • IHS Markit national PMI data are only used in updates of broader geographical PMI series such as the global PMI and eurozone PMI.
  • Other national PMI surveys are released by the ISM (United States), IVEY (Canada), DIFL (Denmark) and SIPP (Singapore) are not used in the broader aggregates as these are not complied by IHS Markit.
  • Manufacturing PMI surveys are released on the first working day of each month, and are followed by services on the third working day.
  • A composite PMI which is a GDP-weighted average of the manufacturing and service sector data is also published alongside the services PMI.
  • Some countries will also have construction PMIs and Whole Economy PMIs, which are released towards the start of each month.
  • You can download the worldwide PMI data through subscription from IHS Markit and press releases are also available from IHS Markit.